Associations between pre-existing comorbidities and in-hospital cardiovascular events and mortality among COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh: a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study ============================================================================================================================================================================================= * Farzana Islam * Kazi Fayzus Salahin * Abdul Wadud Chowdhury * Md. Robed Amin * Abdur Rahim * Shahin Akter * Shamim Talukder * Quazi Monirul Islam * Tippawan Liabsuetrakul ## Abstract **Objective** To identify the associations of in-hospital cardiovascular events and mortality with pre-existing comorbidities and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh without vaccine availability. **Design** A secondary analysis of a prospective multicountry study. **Setting** Three COVID-19-designated hospitals in Bangladesh. **Participants** Adult patients aged ≥18 years with PCR-positive COVID-19 admitted between 10 October 2020 and 31 July 2021 at participating hospitals. **Outcome measures** In-hospital cardiovascular events and mortality. **Main exposures** Pre-existing comorbidities and cardiovascular risk factors. **Results** In 897 COVID-19 patients, 18.7% developed cardiovascular events and 12.6% died. After adjusting for clinical information and treatment, patients with two comorbidities (excluding CVD risk factors) were significantly associated with cardiovascular events (adjusted (adj.) OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.24 to 4.90). Patients with a higher heart rate at admission (adj. OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.04) and those who were receiving intravenous fluids (adj. OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.70) or antibiotics (adj. OR 4.54, 95% CI 1.47 to 14.01) had significantly higher odds of cardiovascular events. The odds of cardiovascular events were lower in those receiving antiviral medications (adj. OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.53). There were no interactions between comorbidities and other covariates in the models. Comorbidities and cardiovascular risk factors were not significantly associated with 30-day mortality in the Cox regression models after adjusting with clinical information and treatment. The mortality within 30 days of admission was significantly higher in patients receiving corticosteroids (adj. HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.48 to 5.38) and lower in those receiving antiviral treatment (adj. HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.81). Those having cardiovascular events significantly increased mortality hazard. **Conclusions** Clinical factors and treatment affected in-hospital cardiovascular events, which subsequently increased the risk of mortality within 30 days for COVID-19 patients. COVID-19 patients regardless of CVD risk factors and comorbidities require close monitoring for cardiovascular events. * COVID-19 * mortality * cardiac epidemiology * health services * public health * cardiovascular disease ### STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THIS STUDY * In-hospital cardiovascular events and mortality among COVID-19 patients with large sample sizes were studied in Bangladesh, South Asia. * Patient cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities were examined accompanied by clinical information and treatment on admission. * Our study provides robust evidence from a secondary analysis of a prospective study. * Data on cardiovascular events and mortality among prevaccine COVID-19 patients were presented. * Laboratory parameters were not included in this secondary analysis. ## Introduction The global population has been greatly affected by COVID-19, which was declared as a global pandemic by WHO in 2020.1 The first case of COVID-19 in Bangladesh was detected on 8 March 2020 and up to 12 August 2023, >2 million cases were confirmed, resulting in 29 446 deaths.2 Although most of the COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh had only mild symptoms, there were still significant hospitalisations and adverse outcomes.3 A systematic review, assessing the mortality of COVID-19 patients in the publications searched up to April 2020, primarily from China, indicated an increased likelihood of in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients after adjusting for age; however, no significant associations were observed between gender or smoking status and in-hospital mortality.4 Another systematic review up to June 2020 also mainly from China concluded that age, gender, smoking and pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, kidney diseases and respiratory diseases contributed to a higher risk of mortality among COVID-19 patients.5 These two systematic reviews shed light on the inconsistencies in the reported magnitude of in-hospital mortality concerning comorbidities and cardiovascular risk factors. It is important to note that most of the studies included in these systematic reviews were conducted in China, where population characteristics and the impact of comorbidities might differ from those in South Asian countries like Bangladesh. COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus which consists of four structural proteins, the spike (S) protein, the nucleocapsid (N) protein, the membrane (M) protein and the envelope (E) protein, and 16 non-structural proteins. The S protein has S1 and S2 subunits which can interact directly with ACE 2, predominantly expressed in the nasal mucous membranes, lung, heart, liver and brain resulting in cell invasion and direct organ damage.6 Elevations of cardiac biomarkers indicating cardiac injury or cardiovascular disease can be affected by COVID-19.7 Clinical outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in terms of hospitalisation, morbidity and mortality vary depending on the variant of concern, risk factors, treatment and vaccination status.6 7 Previous studies have identified associations between adverse outcomes, specifically cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), in COVID-19 patients and cardiovascular risk factors such as older age, male sex, overweight, smoking, hypertension and diabetes.8–14 CVDs are highly prevalent in high-income Asian and Western countries due to population growth and ageing.15 In Bangladesh, after December 2020, Wuhan-like variants were consecutively replaced by the Alpha, Gamma, Eta, Beta, Delta and Omicron variants, respectively.16 17 The infection rates and case fatality rates varied along with the dynamics of the variants throughout the period. The Delta and Beta variants were among the COVID-19 variants associated with higher infection rates in 2021.18 A nationwide immunisation campaign against COVID‐19 was launched among anyone aged 40 years or older in February 2021 and those aged 18 years or older in 10 August 202119; however, the coverage was still low, particularly among the elderly who were the most vulnerable.20 In recent years, Bangladesh has been facing disease transition due to rapid urbanisation and socio-economic and lifestyle changes21 22 and CVD risk factors are now the highest among South Asian countries.23 Furthermore, there is a lack of research investigating the relationship between common clinical presentations of COVID-19 patients and the impact of in-hospital management on patient outcomes. The protocol of a prospective multicountry study, the ‘World Health Federation (WHF) COVID-19 and Cardiovascular Disease Survey’ was published in April 202124 and the main results of the WHF global study on the description of cardiovascular risk factors and clinical outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 patients across diverse populations was published in 2022.25 This study involved 23 countries including Bangladesh, which collected data on COVID-19 patients from October 2020 to July 2021 exclusively from patients who had not received a COVID-19 vaccine in Bangladesh, a period during which the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants were reported in the country. The secondary analysis of this study aimed to identify in-hospital cardiovascular events and mortality among COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh and to assess the effects of pre-existing comorbidities and cardiovascular risk factors on in-hospital cardiovascular events and mortality among COVID-19 patients. The information from this analysis can be useful as guidance concerning the clinical benefits and public health implications in the context of various COVID-19 variants, where vaccinations were not yet available. ## Methods ### Design and study participants This secondary analysis used the data of adult patients aged ≥18 years with PCR-positive COVID-19 admitted between 10 October 2020 and 31 July 2021 in three COVID-19-designated hospitals in Bangladesh, as per the original study. The original study collected the variables as follows: demographic characteristics, pre-existing medical conditions, clinical condition and treatment during hospital admission and clinical outcomes such as death, major adverse cardiovascular events, renal failure, neurological events or pulmonary outcomes at the time of hospital discharge or at the 30-day follow-up after initial admission if already discharged.24 ### Variables The main outcome measures of this study were in-hospital cardiovascular events and mortality. In-hospital cardiovascular events included shock, myocarditis, myocardial infarction, pericarditis, acute heart failure, endocarditis, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, heart blocks and ischaemic stroke, which were included in the composite outcome of major adverse cardiac events used in previous studies26 27 and the study protocol of a main survey.24 Death was recorded for up to 30 days after the initial admission of the COVID-19 patients. Patients who were discharged before 30 days were called to check their status by phone. The recorded causes of death were sudden cardiac death or death due to myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, pulmonary embolus, respiratory failure or other causes. The exposure variables in this study encompassed CVD risk factors and comorbidities. Specifically, the CVD risk factors included age, gender, education level, body mass index (BMI) and smoking status. Education, BMI and smoking were selected as CVD risk factors based on a multicountry community-based prospective cohort study in South Asia.28 Overweight and obesity were defined as a BMI over 25 or 30, respectively. BMI is an anthropometric index of weight and height calculated by dividing a person’s weight by the square of their height (kilograms/metre squared). Comorbidities included both pre-existing cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular conditions prior to admission as reviewed from hospital records. Cardiovascular comorbidities were coronary artery disease, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, cardiomyopathies, rheumatic heart disease, Chagas disease, congenital heart disease, valvular disease and hypertension. Non-cardiovascular comorbidities were diabetes, chronic pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, asthma, previous organ transplant, tuberculosis, cancer on chemotherapy, HIV, chronic immunosuppression and renal replacement therapy. Comorbidities were then classified into four categories: none, one, two and more than two pre-existing diseases. The clinical information recorded at admission included temperature, heart rate, SpO2 level, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure. The treatments on admission were intravenous fluids, antiviral treatment, corticosteroids, antibiotics, ACE inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers and antithrombotic/anticoagulant agents. ### Statistical analysis We used descriptive statistics for categorical variables in counts and percentages, while continuous variables were expressed as means (SD) or medians with IQR. Differences in categorical outcomes between patients who had and those who did not have in-hospital cardiovascular events were tested using the χ2 test. To assess the impact of pre-existing comorbidities—particularly multicomorbidities compared with no comorbidity—and cardiovascular risk factors on in-hospital cardiovascular events among the COVID-19 patients, we used a stepwise binary logistic model to calculate adjusted ORs (adj. ORs) and 95% CIs. Initially, we examined the exposure variables, specifically cardiovascular risk factors, and subsequently considered the clinical information and treatment received on admission. The interactions between comorbidities and other covariates in the models were tested for independence between covariates. The best fitting dataset in the individual model of clinical information and treatment received on admission with comorbidities was selected based on the lowest Akaike information criterion values. We generated Kaplan-Meier cumulative incidence plots to visualise the survival data comparing individuals with the comorbidities, as well as those who experienced cardiovascular events versus those who did not. The significance of these differences was assessed using the log-rank test. To analyse mortality rates, we estimated HRs using a Cox proportional hazards model. The time-to-event was measured in days from hospital admission to either in-hospital death or death within 30 days of follow-up if the patient had already been discharged. Two Cox proportional hazards models were employed in the analysis. Model 1 examined the effects of comorbidities and CVD risk factors and model 2 included the variables from model 1 as well as clinical information and treatment administered on admission. The assumptions of proportionality of hazard were verified for the application of the Cox regression model using individual and global Schoenfeld tests. For any predictor that violated the proportional hazards assumption, we stratified the model by that predictor, meaning it was no longer directly tested or presented in the final model. We then repeated the Schoenfeld tests to ensure that the assumption was satisfied within the stratified model. Statistical significance was defined as p<0.05. The statistical analyses were performed using R V.4.2.3 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing Platform, 2022). ### Patient and public involvement The study patients or the public were not involved in the design, conduct, reporting or dissemination plans of our research. ## Results During the study period, 897 adult patients with COVID-19 were admitted to the study hospitals. A description of the cardiovascular risk factors for the study’s COVID-19 patients is provided in table 1. Almost half of the patients were aged between 46 and 65 years and 23.5% of patients were elderly aged >65 years. Male patients slightly outnumbered females. Two-thirds had an education of at least secondary school and had never smoked and almost half were overweight or obese. View this table: [Table 1](http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/14/8/e083982/T1) Table 1 Description of cardiovascular risk factors for the study’s COVID-19 patients Table 2 describes the existing cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular comorbidities for the study’s COVID-19 patients at admission and any cardiovascular events occurring at 30-day of follow-up. Among 897 patients, 276 (30.8%) had no comorbidities and 614 (68.4%) had at least one comorbidity. Of those with comorbidities, 248 (40.4%) had 1, 250 (40.7%) had 2 and 116 (18.9%) had more than 2 comorbidities. Cardiovascular comorbidities were found in 490 patients (54.6%). Among these, hypertension was the most common (n=481, 98.2%), followed by coronary artery disease (n=51, 10.4%), congenital heart disease (n=25, 5.1%) and stroke (n=16, 3.3%). Non-cardiovascular comorbidities were found in 455 patients (50.7%). Among these, diabetes was the most common (n=394, 86.6%), followed by asthma (n=70, 15.4%) and chronic kidney disease (n=62, 13.6%). Cardiovascular events were diagnosed in 167 patients (18.7%). Myocarditis, pericarditis and endocarditis were all found in