Validation of CHARGE-AF, FHS-AF, CHA2DS-VASc2, CHA2DS-VA and age alone for 5-year and 10-year AF risk
| CHARGE-AF* | FHS-AF† | CHA2DS2-VASc | CHA2DS2-VA | Age | |
| 5-year risk prediction | |||||
| All (n=8265; 98 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.86 (0.82 to 0.90) | 0.86 (0.82 to 0.90) | 0.72 (0.63 to 0.81) | 0.80 (0.73 to 0.86) | 0.84 (0.78 to 0.89) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 1.09 (0.86 to 1.31) | 1.18 (0.98 to 1.38) | – | – | – |
| Age <65 (n=7012; 45 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.84 (0.79 to 0.89) | 0.84 (0.77 to 0.91) | 0.58 (0.42 to 0.74) | 0.68 (0.57 to 0.80) | 0.78 (0.71 to 0.86) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 1.17 (0.86 to 1.47) | 1.17 (0.95 to 1.39) | – | – | – |
| Age ≥65 (n=1253; 53 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.69 (0.59 to 0.78) | 0.69 (0.59 to 0.79) | 0.56 (0.45 to 0.67) | 0.64 (0.55 to 0.73) | 0.65 (0.55 to 0.75) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 1.10 (0.52 to 1.68) | 1.06 (0.53 to 1.59) | – | – | – |
| CHA2DS2-VASc <2 (n=6697; 41 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.85 (0.79 to 0.91) | 0.88 (0.82 to 0.93) | 0.57 (0.45 to 0.68) | 0.66 (0.54 to 0.77) | 0.82 (0.74 to 0.90) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 1.12 (0.77 to 1.47) | 1.37 (1.01 to 1.73) | – | – | – |
| CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 (n=1568; 57 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.70 (0.60 to 0.79) | 0.69 (0.60 to 0.79) | 0.61 (0.52 to 0.70) | 0.67 (0.58 to 0.76) | 0.65 (0.55 to 0.76) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 0.80 (0.34 to 1.25) | 0.77 (0.38 to 1.16) | – | – | – |
| 10-year risk prediction | |||||
| All (n=8265; 249 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.85 (0.82 to 0.88) | 0.83 (0.79 to 0.86) | 0.68 (0.62 to 0.73) | 0.74 (0.70 to 0.79) | 0.81 (0.78 to 0.85) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 1.00 (0.88 to 1.12) | 0.93 (0.79 to 1.08) | – | – | – |
| Age <65 (n=7012; 139 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.84 (0.80 to 0.87) | 0.80 (0.75 to 0.85) | 0.57 (0.49 to 0.65) | 0.64 (0.58 to 0.70) | 0.79 (0.74 to 0.83) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 1.10 (0.91 to 1.28) | 0.90 (0.73 to 1.08) | – | – | – |
| Age ≥65 (n=1253; 110 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.69 (0.63 to 0.75) | 0.69 (0.62 to 0.76) | 0.54 (0.46 to 0.62) | 0.62 (0.55 to 0.69) | 0.58 (0.51 to 0.66) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 0.93 (0.64 to 1.21) | 1.02 (0.61 to 1.43) | – | – | – |
| CHA2DS2-VASc <2 (n=6697; 122 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.84 (0.80 to 0.88) | 0.82 (0.77 to 0.87) | 0.52 (0.45 to 0.58) | 0.63 (0.57 to 0.69) | 0.81 (0.76 to 0.86) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 1.07 (0.88 to 1.26) | 0.96 (0.74 to 1.18) | – | – | – |
| CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 (n=1568; 127 events) | |||||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.72 (0.65 to 0.78) | 0.70 (0.63 to 0.77) | 0.58 (0.52 to 0.64) | 0.64 (0.58 to 0.71) | 0.62 (0.54 to 0.69) |
| Calibration slope (95% CI) | 0.81 (0.57 to 1.06) | 0.69 (0.41 to 0.98) | – | – | – |
*Using the coefficients of the original CHARGE-AF model (Alonso 2013) in our analyses on 5-year risk prediction, and using the coefficients of the recalibrated CHARGE-AF model for 10-year risk prediction (current work) in our analyses on 10-year risk prediction.
†Using the coefficients of the recalibrated FHS-AF model (Schnabel 2010) in our analyses on 5-year risk prediction, and using the coefficients of the original FHS-AF model (Schnabel 2009) in our analyses on 10-year risk prediction.
AF, atrial fibrillation; CHA2DS2-VASc, Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age, Diabetes and previous Stroke or Transient Ischaemic Attack, Vascular disease and female Sex category; CHARGE-AF, Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology model for AF; FHS-AF, Framingham Heart Study model for AF.